Thought Leadership

Retail Property Outlook Q2 2015: Discussion with Peter Linneman

Trademark|May 13, 2015

Written by: Terry Montesi, CEO of Trademark Property Co.

Montesi: Please update us on the U.S. economy. Where do you see it in the cycle, and how would you translate that as advice for us, and our friends? 

Linneman: Sure. I would say, first of all I think one sign happened in the last few days. That sign is kind of giant deals, record-size deals. And while it wasn’t a record-size deal, I would say the Blackstone/Wells Fargo/GE transaction. I don’t think it kills all the canaries because it’s not a record-size deal, but I think one sign of the coming end to the cycle was that transaction. 

Montesi: So on the last bullet, we’ll sadly mark out a canary?

Linneman: Yeah. There are still some there, right? There’s still a lot in that category, but come on. That’s a giant deal, and it means you have the ability to put together capital beyond the normal scope of deals. And it’s well beyond the normal scope of deals. I thought that was, let’s say in the last month or two, the most noteworthy thing in that regard – that’s a lot of capital that was pretty instantly available for a huge transaction. 

Montesi: And to be clear Peter, when a canary moves on, what that means is we might be in that one bullet, slightly closer to a bubble or a worrisome indicator? 

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